The Strange Magic of the Milwaukee Brewers
When veteran columnist Ray Ratto quipped that you could find “hard mathematical reasons” for the Milwaukee Brewers’ win streak “wherever Nerd Stuff is sold,” he was, in a way, pointing to me. And yes, the Brewers’ baffling success has plenty of numbers behind it. But here’s the thing about baseball: the math never tells the full story. Eleven straight wins built on airtight pitching is one matter. Another, barely eight games later, is stringing together 14 more in a row. That’s not just statistics. That’s baseball weirdness.
Andrew Vaughn: From Bust to Brewer Believer
If the Brewers’ season had to be distilled into a single player, Andrew Vaughn would be the perfect candidate. Once a failed White Sox prospect, Vaughn has suddenly morphed into a slugger of mythical proportions since arriving in Milwaukee. His two-month stretch — a scorching .327/.391/.611 slash line and a 176 wRC+ — doesn’t line up with his career track record. On paper, he’s still dragging a negative rWAR from his Chicago days.
So what happened? The answer isn’t mechanical overhaul so much as incremental tweaks: a flatter, quicker swing, better matchups against lefties, and perhaps most importantly, escaping the White Sox vortex. Whether he sustains his Ruthian pace is irrelevant. Vaughn is playing like a miracle man right now, and nothing feels more “Brewers” than that.
From Average to Outlier
Fittingly for America’s team, Milwaukee’s fireworks began on the Fourth of July. Before that? Mediocrity across the board: dead-average hitting and pitching, per FanGraphs, and league-worst quality of contact. Their barrel rate — the Statcast metric that best predicts power — was dead last in baseball.
Fast forward through their streaks, and here’s the kicker: those metrics didn’t suddenly change. Even during their 29–5 tear after July 4, the Brewers remained near the bottom of the league in barrel rate. Their pitching rose modestly, but they were still middle-of-the-pack overall.
In other words, this wasn’t a team reinventing itself. It was a team defying the math.
Hits, Not Homers
Milwaukee’s offense thrives not on power but on contact. Beyond Christian Yelich and rookie sensation Jackson Chourio, no Brewer is remotely on pace to hit 20 home runs. Their lineup leans on names like Brice Turang, William Contreras, Isaac Collins, and Sal Frelick — solid players, not sluggers.
Yet somehow, they’ve fielded the second-best offense in baseball since July 4. How? By hitting the ball harder overall, raising their hard-hit rate to league average and, more critically, racking up hits at an unsustainable pace. Their BABIP is the highest in baseball, meaning plenty of those balls are simply finding grass. It’s the kind of production that looks lucky, feels lucky — and still works.
Pitching by Results, Not Metrics
Where the Brewers pull away from fellow hit-happy teams like Toronto is on the mound. By fWAR, Milwaukee’s staff ranks only eighth in value. But by ERA — the metric that matters most to fans — they’re second-best in the majors. In plain English: they prevent runs.
FanGraphs’ playoff odds reflect it. On July 4, Milwaukee had just a 60 percent chance of reaching October. Today, that number sits at 100 percent.
A Streak Fueled by Chaos
Dig into their 14-game streak and you’ll find the chaos that defines this season. Sure, there were easy wins against weaker clubs like Pittsburgh. But then came the collapses they forced: three straight Mets meltdowns in which New York squandered win probabilities of 77, 70, and 93 percent. The Reds followed by blowing games they had a 98- and 87-percent chance to win. At some point, probability charts stop mattering.
The Law of Baseball: Some Bullshit Is Always Happening
On the flip side, consider the 2024 White Sox, who stumbled into historic ineptitude. Bad teams need bad luck to be truly historic. Likewise, good teams often need a sprinkle of magic to become contenders. The Brewers are proving the same point from the opposite end of the spectrum.
So don’t bother asking if Milwaukee is “sustainable.” That misses the essence of what’s happening here. For now, the Brewers are winning — improbably, undeniably, hilariously. Whether it’s skill, luck, or some blend of both, the results are already in.
And results, as they say, are everything.
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