Marlins vs. Cardinals: Betting Preview, Odds, and Key Matchups

Miami, FL — It’s a clash of division hopefuls at loanDepot Park as the Miami Marlins host the St. Louis Cardinals on Tuesday night. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET, with Miami entering as the betting favorite.

The Odds

• Moneyline: Marlins -143 | Cardinals +120

• Run Line: Marlins -1.5

• Over/Under: 8 runs

Oddsmakers lean toward Miami, giving the Marlins an implied win probability of 58.8%, but their track record as favorites hasn’t been inspiring. Miami has lost all five games this season when listed at -143 or shorter.

Pitching Matchup

• Cardinals: Michael McGreevy (4–2, 4.41 ERA)

• Marlins: Xavier Edwards (spot starter, batting star turned emergency option?)

McGreevy takes the mound for St. Louis, looking to steady a rotation that’s been hit-or-miss. Miami, meanwhile, turns to Edwards, who has been the team’s most consistent hitter (.300 average) but is also being leaned on heavily in key moments.

Expert Prediction

• Projected Score: Marlins 5, Cardinals 4

• Total Prediction: Over 8 runs

• Win Probabilities: Marlins 53%, Cardinals 47%

With both lineups capable of putting runs on the board and shaky bullpens looming, the over looks attractive.

Betting Insights

• The Marlins have been favored 20 times this season, winning just 45% of those contests.

• The Cardinals thrive as underdogs, with a 48.5% win rate in 68 games when not favored.

• Miami has gone 4–6 ATS over their last 10, while St. Louis mirrors that mark at 4–6 ATS.

Recent Form

• Marlins (2–8 last 10): 4.2 runs per game, .212 batting average, 6.07 ERA.

• Cardinals (4–6 last 10): 4.0 runs per game, .249 average, 4.40 ERA.

Miami’s pitching woes (5.87 ERA in their past 10) continue to undermine their offense, while St. Louis has struggled to find consistency but enters with slightly better form.

Players to Watch

• Marlins:
  • Xavier Edwards — Team’s best hitter (.300, 34 RBI).

  • Otto Lopez — 11 HR, 17 doubles.

  • Agustin Ramirez — Provides pop (18 HR, 26 doubles).

• Cardinals:
  • Alec Burleson — Hot bat (.288 avg), hitting .450 over his last five games.

  • Willson Contreras — Power leader (16 HR, 66 RBI).

  • Masyn Winn — Key doubles producer (26).

The Edge

The Marlins are favored, but with both teams’ recent inconsistency, the Cardinals offer live underdog value. If Miami’s pitching continues to falter, St. Louis has the bats to cash in.

Pick: Marlins win narrowly, but expect the Over to hit.

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